Friday, January 29, 2010

The ride improves at the top end of the auto market

nside the Houston Auto Show, local corporate banker Michael Tribolet was in the driver's seat of a BMW 335i.

“This is a fabulous car,” said Tribolet, who has owned numerous luxury cars.

Currently he drives a Porsche 911 that he bought slightly used last July. He chose one in slate gray, he said, because it was the same color as the Porsche he traded in. Given the economy, he explained, he didn't want people to know that he purchased an expensive car.

Many high-end car buyers understand his sentiments, according to an auto analyst. Well-to-do consumers did not feel comfortable buying high-priced cars during a recession, said Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends at TrueCar.com, a new-car-pricing Web site.

“Over the past year there was a major sales decline for higher-priced luxury cars, and not only because of the downturn,” he said. Even if a person did have the funds to buy a high-end car, it “just didn't feel right,” knowing so many people were hurting, he said.

In the last couple of months, however, their attitude has shifted, he believes: “In fact, we are seeing the higher-priced luxury cars outperforming the rest of the market.”

Guilt factor

With the economy improving, wealthy consumers don't feel as guilty, he said. If the guilt factor in buying a high-end luxury car was a 10 in the fall, it is now a 7, he said.

There is a strong correlation between the Dow Jones industrial average and luxury vehicle sales, Toprak said, adding that the stock market “sets the mood.”

For January, sales at Mercedes-Benz are projected to climb 32 percent year over year, with Lexus up 30 percent and BMW up 13 percent, Toprak said. In comparison, the overall auto market is projected to go up 11 percent for January.

He expects “higher-priced luxury” and “super-luxury” cars to continue to outperform the industry.

Toprak defines higher-priced luxury cars as those costing $55,000 to $90,000 and super luxury as those selling for more than $90,000.

Among the luxury and super luxury vehicles at the Houston Auto Show, which runs through Sunday at Reliant Center, are Acura, Aston Martin, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Infiniti, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lotus, Lexus, Lincoln and Mercedes-Benz. Many visitors were posing for pictures with them.

Luxury models having their Texas debut at the show include the Audi A8 and the Jaguar XJ.

“There is pent-up demand for luxury cars,” said David Cutting, senior manager of North America forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. The recovery in the luxury car market will be gradual, he said.

Currently, luxury cars make up 6 percent of the market, and by year's end it will be 8 percent, he said.

Among luxury cars, Audi, BMW and Mercedes are showing the most growth, Cutting said.

Audi has done “extremely well” in recent years, gaining ground on BMW and Mercedes-Benz, according to Karl Brauer, editor in chief of Edmunds.com.

Important to Group 1

Noting that U.S. sales of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Lexus were up in December, year over year, Pete DeLongchamps, vice president of manufacturer relations and public affairs at Houston-based Group 1 Automotive, said that luxury brands “are an important part of our business, and we remain positive about our investment” in them.

Group 1 owns 11 BMW dealerships in the U.S., including two in the Houston area, as well as six Mercedes dealerships; four Lexus, including two in the Houston area; one Audi; one Infiniti; and one Porsche dealership.

Group 1 also owns a Maybach dealership in Beverly Hills. A super premium car, the Maybach starts at $358,000 and moseys on up to $1,380,000.

At Porsche Cars of North America, there is “guarded optimism that the worst is behind us, but it's still a tough market out there,” said Tony Fouladpour, business communications manager for Porsche Cars of North America.

In 2009, Porsche sales dropped 24 percent, he said.

Houstonian Jack Hunt was at the auto show eyeing the new Jaguars, while confessing he was a loyal “Lincoln guy.” He drives a Lincoln MKX and said his wife drives a Lincoln Navigator. A commercial laundry equipment salesman, Hunt drives a lot and wants to make a good impression on clients, he said.

He comes in contact with wealthy people, many of whom drive luxury cars, Hunt said, noting: “They like to show their success in the car they drive.”

Expanded portfolios?

Sales of the extremely expensive exotic cars such as the Ferrari and Aston Martin all fell dramatically last year, Toprak said. He predicts that some makers of exotic cars will expand their portfolios by introducing less expensive models.

For example, he speculated, a “little brother” Ferrari could cost $100,000 instead of $200,000 or $300,000.

david.kaplan@chron.com

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