Sunday, January 17, 2010

Falcon, here today......

The point at which I spotted that Australia's media sharks had Ford's big cheese cornered was probably about the time he'd just started to explain how his brand had to "bring scale and volume" to bear on the market.

Anyway, by the time I joined the feeding frenzy I'd ... er ... kinda missed the full ins and outs of that bit.

Bloody sneaky Aussies!

Not a problem. Ford Motor chief executiv officer Alan Mulally, out of reach of his minders, was steaming on. Above all the hubbub of the gathering between Blue Oval bigwigs and media in the Detroit art gallery, I could hear that distinctive voice laying down a strong argument.

Worming my way into the media throng, I picked up something about how manufacturers engaged in the complexities of different platforms for different markets, "can't compete with the global companies, and Ford's going to be a powerhouse globally."

Great quotes. I reached into the top left inside pocket of my jacket, where I ALWAYS keep my portable recorder ... then realised, with sudden gut-wrenching dread, that it was still in my hotel room.

Oh, sod!

No matter, I had my notebook. Mulally was taking questions thick and fast, and batting em back just as quickly.

"Car makers) who make one vehicle, a different vehicle for one country, I think those days are gone ..." and something about how, under the new "One Ford" programme, there would be only one large-car platform for all markets.

Juicy stuff. My writing hand far flew across the pages .... and then a favourite pen that had never, ever shown any sign of trouble suddenly ran out of ink.

I dare not repeat the word that escaped my lips then.

Before I could do anything more, Mulally had slipped away and, so too, the best story of my trip to last week's Detroit motor show.

You've perhaps read the account of that remarkable five-minute session in the Australian media. Ford has since suggested it was overplayed; they say the boss wasn't adding anything new to comment he first made a year ago.

Nonetheless, the story made quite an impact across the Tasman. By next night, the load of follow up calls to our Ford Australia PR host was so great her cellphone battery went flat. Twice.

You can understand why Aussies are so antsy. Introduced to Australia in 1960, the car has been the mainstay of Ford's Australian manufacturing operations.

Without this car, some 4700 Ford workers - around half on the factory floor and the remainder in engineering, administration, marketing and product design - could well be left twiddling their thumbs.

Then there are the numerous suppliers; about 80 percent of Falcon parts are thought to be produced in Australia. Panels and engines for the Falcon and its Territory wagon variant produced at Geelong, with assembly housed at Campbellfield, in Melbourne's north.

Is all this in jeopardy? Mulally never said it was. In fact, he hasn't emphatically said that the Falcon, which marks 50 years on Australian roads this year, is a goner as a nameplate.

What he has made clear is that Ford intends that only one large car platform will be built for all world markets under the company's One Ford programme.

He has also said that Ford America's Falcon equivalent, the Taurus, has a future under One Ford. It will become a global export product, which inevitably means they'll give it a second go here, regardless that the first attempt - back in the 1990s - was a complete fiasco.

It has seemed obvious for some time that the days of Ford Australia being able to design, engineer and produce a bespoke rear-drive car for just two countries are almost certainly over.

Ford Australia's boss, Marin Burela, says there is still a year's grace until a decision about the next Falcon, due in 2015, being front or rear-wheel-drive. That may be so. Personally, I wouldn't now bet a cent on the status quo being maintained.

Unquestionably, the Falcon is a better driver's car than the Taurus. The American product has improved since we last saw it. Quality and styling it eons ahead of the awkward car that came here 15 years or so ago. The latest drivetrains, particularly the 3.5-litre Ecoboost V6, are smoother, quieter and more efficient.

But, on the strength of a very limited run at Ford's Dearborn test track, I would hesitate to suggest even the flagship performance SHO edition - a car of which the Americans are very proud - is as fast or as dynamic as the XR-badged Falcon equivalents.

But that's not really the point. Americans like the Taurus. And in the US alone, Taurus sales are well above the Falcon count, which has continued to fall over recent years.

For Australia says demand out of Australia and New Zealand is enough to keep the current FG in profitable production. Yet Mulally, whose company gained market share in the US last year while his domestic rivals went bankrupt, wants to back cars that return profits globally, not just regionally. Falcon doesn't do that.

And even though the current car is a viable business case for Australia, how could the next one be? The cost of developing a new car is simply huge and if the market opportunities are too limited then surely the risk is simply too great?

The driving logic behind One Ford is simple enough: It's about maximising product potential to achieve best possible financial returns.

In the short term, Ford is happy to spend more money on the current Falcon - hence the green light for the introduction of more engines; first the Coyote V8 this year, then the Ecoboost 2.0-litre in 2011.

Don't imagine that Ford isn't aware of how sensitive customers are to change. It knows the idea of a front-wheel-drive Falcon is practically Galilean heresy to Aussie and Kiwi enthusiasts, particularly those supporters fuelled on Bathurst bravura.

But fact is, even those who pledge support to the Blue or Red flag every race weekend still often drive other brands. If fans bought the cars as eagerly as they snap up the merchandise, Falcon would be a perpetual sales leader and these decisions would not be required. But they don't, and so it is.

Ford Australia's best bet now is to convince the Americans they can build, and further improve, the Taurus. That shouldn't be hard: Just put them behind the wheel of any FG Falcon, a version Mulally readily agrees it is a great driving car.

Melbourne already has runs on the board in regard to undertaking work for overseas' affiliates. In recent years it played a significant role in the development of a new one-tonne utility vehicle and worked on styling projects for Ford of India. Fettling a Taurus for local conditions is well within its capabilities.

Likewise, the Broadmeadows plant could conceivably assemble anything from the current Ford family, in left or right-hand drive. Until a year ago, remember, it seemed set to be a home base for the next Focus, here in 2012.

Mulally, 64, came to Ford after a 37-year career at Boeing, where he managed development of the 787 Dreamliner, does not seem to be the kind of person who will cold-heartedly sacrifice Australian jobs simply to protect American ones.

But this utterly magnetic personality is committed to Ford being a winner. Under his watch, Ford has slashed its North American workforce in half, closed factories and converted plants from making sport-utility vehicles to building smaller autos like the Focus. He sold Jaguar, Land Rover and Aston Martin and is near a sale of Volvo to China's Geely.So far, all his strategies have come up aces. Last month, for instance, Ford US reported a 33 percent sales rise while its rivals struggled with losses.

Mulally reckons Ford Australia might be useful in helping develop Ford's US muscle car, the Mustang, which uses the same rear-wheel-drive layout as the Falcon, albeit with much less sophisticated underpinnings. From anyone else, this might sound like a sop.

On the strength of last week's comments, doubtless there'll be a Save the Falcon campaign started up somewhere. I doubt it'll make any difference.

Only your cash will keep alive the Falcon as we know it. Since sales have been steadily slipping these past few years, I'm picking too few 'supporters' are going to buy into that idea.

What this means to you: Officially, Falcon still has a chance, but at what odds now?

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