By Mike Sulka
The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Richmond was run back on April 19th, 1953, and was won by Lee Petty. Fast Forward forward 56 years, and 106 races and you'll have tonight's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway in Richmond, Virginia.
On May 2nd of 2009, Kyle Busch and his No. 18 Combos Toyota broke up what had been a all-Chevrolet party over the last seven visits to Richmond. From 2006 to 2008, Chevrolet had won six straight races, and though Busch's triumph ended that winning streak, the Chevrolet teams still grabbed four out of the five finishes in May.
So we won't bet against those numbers tonight. A Chevrolet will win, but the question is...
Which one ?
Three-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson has won 3 of the last 5 races at Richmond, but in May he slumped back to 36th. And although Johnson has won every time he's qualified fourth or better over the last three years, we aren't picking the No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet for victory.
So if not Johnson... then who ?
And though we are very tempted to pick Tony Stewart - as we did in May - the two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion will have his worst starting position since 2006 - 29th. Stewart usually finishes better than his starting position, and the 'Rocket' has finished 2nd, 4th, 2nd, and 2nd during his last four visits to the circuit. Tony Stewart even has won at this circuit (99, 01, 02) three times, and has led over 10% of the 8000+ laps he's run at Richmond.
But that 29th place starting position leaves a lot to be desired, and he'll have a lot of traffic - and likely contact - to avoid before getting to the front.
So... We are going with the ageless wonder, Mr. Anti-aging himself... Mark Martin.
Why ?
It's just a feeling.
Though Mark Martin has taken five NASCAR Sprint Cup Pole positions this season, and only turned one of those into his four victories. And although he has only won once at Richmond in 47 tries, and that win came way back in 1990 - nearly 20 years ago... He has finished in the top five in each of the last three races at Richmond.
Martin is definitely not the slam dunk pick that Tony Stewart, or Jimmie Johnson might be... But tonight...
He's going to be your winner.
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